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"The LORD passed by, and a great and strong wind rent the mountains, and brake in pieces the rocks before the LORD; but the LORD was not in the wind: and after the wind an earthquake; but the LORD was not in the earthquake: And after the earthquake a fire; but the LORD was not in the fire: and after the fire a still small voice" (1 Kings 19: 11-12, King James Version).

I find this passage, in which God whispers to a dispirited Elijah, one of the most beautiful - and, ultimately, disturbing - in the Bible. It's especially appealing now, amid the rising tumult at the end of this year's election season.

The deepest, most astonishing truths are revealed in silence, among the small, the overlooked, the broken, the unexpected. The noise of political TV ads, accusations and counter-charges usually obscures, rather than illuminates, what's most important. It's hard for anyone to listen when everyone is shouting so self-assuredly.

This isn't to say that all the yelling over the war in Iraq, the many shortcomings of the Bush administration or the cluelessness of the Democrats is pointless.

Far from it. Wars can have tremendous consequences. For example, we might thank the 300 Spartans who died fighting Xerxes' legions at Thermopylae that we're not all speaking Farsi today.

On the other hand, can anyone argue, based on the results, that the Thirty Years War (1618-1648), or any of more than 100 years of warfare between Catholics and Protestants back when, had any real point?

Leadership matters, too. Hubris, as a rule of thumb, leads to disaster. So can weakness. Yet boldness and persistence can bear good fruit. Consider Hitler, Chamberlain and Churchill.

Problem is, we can't know what will bear good fruit in advance. We can't base decisions on the expectation of such and such an outcome. The best-laid plans, as Robert Burns suggested, often do go to waste.

I'm not advocating quietism here. I'm glad I get paid to work out and advocate positions on the most heated issues of the day. What bothers me is what history suggests: that we rarely see coming what ends up mattering the most to us.

Homo sapiens, cross our fingers, is unlikely anymore to perish in a nuclear Armageddon. We probably won't go extinct in a bizarre pandemic. Even global warming will be hard-pressed to wipe us out - or less-publicized menaces, such as the decline and shift of Earth's magnetic fields. That's because we're aware of such once-unimaginable things now and are able - if not yet willing - to adjust.

No, it's what's unimaginable now that worries me. There's something we're always missing, often right under our noses. To see it, we have to pay very careful attention - to open our minds and listen, to hear the whisper. The mass psychology and manipulations of politics aren't very conducive to that.

What will we hear? Elijah, after those beautiful verses, heard the Lord quietly order him, in effect, to kill apostates. We must not expect all revelations to be sweet.

Ehn is Tribune opinion editor.