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With the 2008 election fast approaching, speculation is growing about what happens post-Gov. Bill Richardson. Who will be in the best position to take the reins of state government?

While no strong Republican candidates have emerged, the race on the Democratic side looks like it will be between the soft-spoken but savvy Lt. Gov. Diane Denish and the hard-charging, imperial Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez.

Early polling has Denish substantially ahead among likely Democrats. Some of that could be because of her association with the popular Richardson administration or issues she has championed around the state. Some of it, I'm sure, has to do with Chavez's cozy relationship with the GOP.

If Republicans could vote in Democratic primaries, Denish might have a real problem on her hands. In his two recent terms as Albuquerque mayor, Chavez has often sounded and acted more like a Republican than many of the GOP faithful. That could spell real trouble for him in the 2010 Democratic primary for governor.

Just as it is more likely for a conservative to win the Republican nomination in a primary, it is more likely that a liberal Democrat will win. Why? The faithful who show up in primaries tend to represent the extremes of their respective parties. This is where Chavez's gubernatorial aspirations begin to hit rough waters.

After his first term as mayor in 1997, Chavez was a rising star who won the Democratic nomination for governor. He lost to Libertarian-leaning but registered Republican Gary Johnson, who was effective at portraying Chavez as a "tax and spend" Democrat. The ghost of the lost governor's race has haunted Chavez ever since.

In his first three months as mayor for the second time, Chavez set a course to take on pretty much every core Democratic constituency: unions by proposing to lay off 300 city employees; environmentalists by pushing for no-holds-barred sprawling development; social progressives by promoting a no-tolerance, tough-on-crime policy that cracked down on kids, the homeless and anyone else who stepped ever-so-slightly out of line.

In a nonpartisan mayoral race, Chavez cobbled together a coalition of moderate Republicans, centrist Democrats and independents to win a second nonconsecutive term in 2001 and re-election in 2005. However, a partisan gubernatorial race is another animal altogether.

Explaining why he endorsed Republican Sen. Pete Domenici for re-election - and helped at least two Republican City Council candidates over their Democratic rivals - will be an interesting dance, even for someone with Chavez's fancy political footwork.

Harder still will be rationalizing that since entering office, Chavez has been in a nonstop battle with a Democratic-led City Council, calling it "too liberal."

So as the 2008 election cycle comes and goes, the question for Chavez is: Will the base of his party take him back?

We'll see.