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Analysis: Senate candidate Martin Chavez lagged behind his rival
From every angle, mayor's run was in Udall's shadow
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It could have been the polls. Or the money, or the blogs.
Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez wasn't beating U.S. Rep. Tom Udall in any of those categories, so it's a good bet all played a role in Chavez's decision to drop out of the U.S. Senate race.
However, the mayor wasn't saying much Friday night or this morning, in the hours after his decision was made public.
Instead, a terse statement from his Senate campaign office said Chavez didn't want New Mexico Democrats to be divided in the 2008 election, so he was stepping aside and supporting Udall in the Democratic primary.
"While I deeply appreciate all the support I have received, it has become very clear to me that Democrats should not be divided in the upcoming election," Chavez's statement read. "A hotly contested primary, as this one certainly would be, would likely weaken the Democratic nominee and place the general election in jeopardy."
His campaign didn't return calls seeking comment.
But consider: Several recent polls suggested Udall would trounce Chavez in the June 3 primary, and that Chavez would have a tough general election against either of the top Republican candidates, U.S. Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.
A recent Survey USA poll showed Udall would win 62 percent of the primary vote compared to Chavez's 32 percent.
Another poll released by Udall's campaign in late October showed Udall would defeat Wilson, of Albuquerque, by 16 points in the general election and Pearce, of Hobbs, by 17 points.
Earlier polls showed both Republicans handily defeating Chavez, though Chavez later came out with polls showing the race would be close.
It didn't help that national Democratic leaders, including Sen. Charles Schumer of New York, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, had said the group might lend aid to a primary candidate who appeared to have the best chances in November.
In fund-raising, Chavez was behind as well. Udall has more than $800,000 in the bank for the race, while to date Chavez said he had raised about $300,000.
A primary race would have drained both candidates' war chests, leaving less for the general election - though the November 2008 contest is sure to attract major national party money on both sides.
And then, there were the blogs.
Several of the state's most progressive blogs haven't been kind to Chavez - largely due to his moderate and sometimes conservative stances on issues. He'd also made enemies with some liberal members of the Albuquerque City Council.
News of Chavez's decision first broke on the blog "Daily Kos," where some suggested he will jump into the state's 1st Congressional District race.
Chavez's statement did not cite any future plans and Chavez did not return phone calls Friday night.
Chavez had tried to reach out to the online community by hosting the campaign's first virtual town hall last month, taking questions over the Internet and answering them online via streaming video.
University of New Mexico political science professor Christine Sierra said Chavez might have been done in by something else: his campaign message.
"So far, his main arguments as to why people should prefer him over Udall was that he was the native son and he was going to try and pull the Hispanic vote, and that he was going to defend the labs," she said.
"I think both of those were very weak messages that ultimately wouldn't play well with Hispanics or the Democratic base," Sierra said.
While Chavez, 54, was born in New Mexico, Udall since 1998 has represented the more liberal and heavily Hispanic northern part of the state and had wide popular support.
Chavez also seemed to focus on Udall's recent support of a measure in Congress that cut funding for national labs, including Sandia and Los Alamos.
Udall couched his support by saying the labs needed to diversify, while Chavez - and Republicans - chided him for his inability to maintain status quo funding.
Meanwhile, polling numbers - the holy book of campaigns - had not been particularly hopeful.
"If we can believe what we've seen of the polling numbers, Marty Chavez had an uphill battle to beat out Tom Udall," Sierra said.
Now that he's out, Chavez said he'll support Udall.
"Tom Udall has my full support," Chavez said in his statement. "I will work to help him and all Democrats get elected throughout our great state of New Mexico and our nation."
Udall's campaign didn't return a call seeking comment Friday evening. It did, however, put out a statement within minutes after Chavez's announcement that Udall was heading to Iowa to campaign for Gov. Bill Richardson.
So what's next for Chavez, a former state senator, gubernatorial candidate and two-term mayor?
Before U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici announced this fall that he wouldn't seek re-election in 2008, Chavez flirted with the idea of running for governor in 2010, which he still could do.
The other Democrat remaining in the Senate race is Leland Lehrman, an alternative newspaper editor who lives in Lamy.

