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Heath Haussamen: Target: Pearce

Moderate Democrat could be threat to Hobbs Republican

By Heath Haussamen
Wednesday, June 13, 2007

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Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff says the stars would have to align for a Democrat to defeat southern New Mexico's District 2 Rep. Steve Pearce next year. The GOP congressman's recent fund-raising letter makes it appear that he thinks there's a chance that will happen.

The ideal candidate to take on the Hobbs Republican, Sanderoff told me in April, would be a strong, moderate Democrat from Las Cruces who can regionalize the race and win GOP votes on the district's west side. In addition, Pearce would have to face a scandal that challenges his credibility, and the national wave that favored Democrats in 2006 would have to continue. Sanderoff predicted the second will happen.

Sanderoff said involvement of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the fund-raising arm of House Democrats, is critical. Pearce knows that. He sent out a fund-raising letter in May asking for help to keep the DCCC out of the race.

"They have the funds and power to make a real impact in any race they choose, and we need to keep them out of the Second District," Pearce wrote. "They are guaranteed to target us unless we make the hurdle too tall to climb."

Two Democrats have entered the 2008 race - the liberal Al Kissling, whom Pearce defeated last year, and Do¤a Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley, a moderate. Another moderate Democrat, state Rep. Joseph Cervantes of Las Cruces, is considering running.

In his letter, Pearce attacked McCamley and Kissling as liberals who would "be a voice for" Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, while calling himself a "common-sense conservative."

Because he has easily defeated stronger opponents in the past, it's surprising that Pearce is acknowledging his challengers - and going negative - when they still have to battle each other in a primary. That could make him appear weak and help his opponents raise money.

In 2002, Pearce defeated state Sen. John Arthur Smith by 12 percent. In 2004, he beat Gary King by 22 percent, and many began believing the seat would be his as long as he wanted it.

Last year, Pearce faced his weakest opponent yet - Kissling, a political newcomer who raised about a tenth of what Pearce raised for the race. But Kissling did better than King - winning a little more than 40 percent of the vote - even though King spent more than $1 million on his race and Kissling spent less than $200,000.

Kissling's surprising showing, which Sanderoff said was due more to the Democratic wave than his own candidacy, has many thinking Pearce might be vulnerable in 2008.

All three Democrats have met with DCCC officials this year, and it appears only McCamley is raising the kind of money that might draw the group's attention. Though he won't release fund-raising totals until he files his first report in July, I've heard from a number of Democrats and a couple of Republicans who have given McCamley money.

In March, Kissling still had debt from his 2006 campaign. Cervantes has the money to jump into the race later and compete. Unless he does that or Kissling gets more active soon, McCamley will likely face Pearce next year.

Haussamen is an independent, online political journalist based in Las Cruces. His work can be found at http://nmpolitics.net.