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Governor must shine in Florida, experts say

Must talk about Latin American concerns

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Know your primaries

Iowa caucus: Jan. 14, 2008

Nevada caucus: Jan. 19

New Hampshire primary: Jan. 22

Florida (pending governor's signature) and South Carolina primaries: Jan. 29

New Mexico caucus: Feb. 5

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— Gov. Bill Richardson has to talk farming with Iowans. He needs to come down on the right side of the Confederate-flag debate in South Carolina.

In New Hampshire, he must keep all those little towns straight. And in Nevada, he has to emphasize the importance of the West in the next presidential election.

So what must he know for his next trip to Florida, now that the Sunshine State looks poised to join the ranks of states with early primary importance?

As much as he can, with an emphasis on Latin America, says Mitch Ceasar, chairman of the Broward County Democratic Executive Committee.

"Policy in Cuba, the embargo. He's got to know general things, too, the outrageous gas prices, the war, oil, and how that can be resolved through foreign policy," Ceasar said.

More than what he needs to know about Florida, however, Ceasar said Richardson needs to be in Florida.

"He needs to have more presence, but he needs to balance that with his budget. No candidate can spend all their time in one state," Ceasar said.

Richardson has been there twice since late January, when he announced his run for the presidency.

Those trips seem to have done well for him: the combined donations from Florida ranked fifth among states on Richardson's list of donors, totaling $194,850.

So does that translate into popularity in what is likely to become yet another key early primary state? A measure moving the primary date to Jan. 29, 2008, is awaiting Gov. Charlie Crist's signature.

Probably not, says University of Florida-Gainesville associate political science professor Richard Conley.

"Moving the primary up doesn't do anything for Richardson," he said.

"The problem for Richardson is going to be (that) if he's running as a Hispanic, the Cubans here aren't going to vote for him," Conley said.

Cubans in Florida tend to vote heavily Republican, Conley said.

And emphasizing his roots isn't likely to go over too well, Conley said, especially in the northern part of the state.

"I don't think that coming to Florida and saying `Yo soy Hispanico' is going to help," he said.

Overall, however, Richardson, who was born to a Mexican mother and an American banker father, might do better in Florida than, say, Iowa, in part because of large foreign-born and minority populations with which he can connect.

Iowa's foreign-born population is 3.5 percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Florida's is nearly 18 percent. In contrast, 9 percent of New Mexico's population is foreign-born.

Still, Richardson needs name ID - and quick, Conley said.

"Most people just don't know him here," he said. "I think you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone outside of academic and intellectual circles who knows him."

Richardson has visited Florida twice, once to speak at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Fort Lauderdale and another to the World Pension Forum in Sunny Isles.

In contrast, he's gone twice to Iowa and South Carolina, three times to New Hampshire and four times to Nevada.

Richardson campaign spokesman Pahl Shipley declined to comment when asked about the governor's strategy in Florida, saying the primary date isn't yet finalized and the campaign wants to know for sure when it will be.

While other states are talking of possibly changing their primary dates, there's no discussion of moving New Mexico's caucus from Feb. 5, 2008, said state Democratic Party Executive Director Matt Farrauto. The primary is paid for and run by the party, not the state.