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Analysis: New Mexico's hot Senate race has Democrats in a lather

By Kate Nash
Saturday, November 17, 2007

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The cast of characters is shaping up in the state's U.S. Senate Democratic primary election, but don't expect to see much of the candidates for a while.

They need to raise money first.

And do expect the cash to come rushing in as Democratic leaders set their sights on replacing U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici, the Albuquerque Republican who has had the seat for 35 years, with a Democrat.

"It's clear that New Mexico is going to have one of the top Senate races in the country next year," said Matt Miller, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

"It's a major opportunity for Democrats and one of the seats that is the most likely to change hands," he said.

With that major opportunity comes minor details.

To get on the June 3 primary ballot, candidates first must get 20 percent of the delegate votes at the party's pre-primary convention in March.

The focus until then will likely be on fund-raising, said Lonna Atkeson, a political science professor at the University of New Mexico.

"I don't see anything major happening besides raising money until we see who the candidates are" after the March convention, she said.

But the game is already on between the top two candidates, U.S. Rep. Tom Udall and Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez.

Udall, who officially filed for the seat Friday, made his first move Nov. 10, releasing a poll showing he would defeat either of the top Republican contenders for the seat, U.S. Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce, in a general election.

The poll found him leading Wilson, of Albuquerque, by 16 points, and ahead of Pearce, of Hobbs, by 17 points.

The same poll, done Oct. 23-27 by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin and Associates, showed Chavez 4 percentage points ahead of Wilson and 4 points behind Pearce.

Chavez subtly one-upped Udall. At almost the same time Udall made his announcement, Chavez said he's rethinking the city's controversial red-light camera program — a story that got better play in Albuquerque than Udall's not-so surprising decision to join the race.

It's no surprise the candidates are already at work and that the primary race has already drawn national interest. The stakes are high, not just for New Mexico, but for the balance of power in Congress, as Democrats hope to take over five open Senate seats.

The seat held by Domenici since 1973 is one of five open Senate seats in the country. All five — in Colorado, Idaho, Nebraska. Virginia and New Mexico — are currently held by Republicans.

While Chavez and Udall start to duke it out, other candidates already in the race have decided to move on. Santa Fe affordable housing advocate Jim Hannan says he'll drop out of the race and support Udall. Don Wiviott, a Santa Fe developer, has quit in order to seek Udall's current seat, in the state's 3rd Congressional District, which includes the northern portion of the state and Sandoval County.

Alternative newspaper editor Leland Lehrman of Lamy remains in the primary race.

Voters who thought Chavez might back out once Udall stepped in have another think coming, the Albuquerque mayor said.

"I'm committed to this. I'm in this to win. I don't think people should get into races they aren't fully committed to," he said in an interview last week.

"I get up early, and I work really late. It doesn't matter who is in (the race) in that regard," Chavez said. "You do the work whether Bill Richardson gets in or Tom Udall gets in."

Some still speculate Richardson, the state's governor and presidential contender, will stun everyone and get into the race, once the presidential primary elections are over next year. He has repeatedly denied it.

For now, though, the pundits are focused on the Udall-Chavez matchup.

Atkeson said Udall likely has more name recognition in a statewide race.

"Udall has that name," she said. "That name is really meaningful in the West. That's like a Kennedy name for people in the Rocky Mountains."

Udall's father, Stewart, is a former Interior Department secretary, and his uncle, Mo Udall, was a presidential candidate in 1976. His cousin is U.S. Rep. Mark Udall, a Colorado Democrat.

Name recognition aside, the candidates are quite different, Atkeson said.

"You have a guy who is clearly more liberal in the House, and Marty, who is a big-city mayor and so he's more economic development, more pro-business, which is typical for a city mayor," she said.

The question, Atkeson said, will be "Whom are you trying to motivate and activate in the primary?"

The candidates want to motivate voters for sure. But they also will want to get donors to give.

Already, Richardson has scooped up millions of dollars from New Mexico. Other presidential candidates — not to mention those in the state's three open U.S. House seats — are trolling for money as well.

The money-raising challenge could get harder for Chavez, Atkeson said.

With Udall all but formally in the race, Atkeson said, "Some of (Chavez's) support might whither. And you would expect it to, because, as you expand the field there are only so many people that can give," she said.

Chavez said his campaign has secured $560,000 in financial pledges. He won't release a campaign report until December.

Udall's campaign has about $800,000 in the bank.