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Analysis: This time, New Mexico GOP will find sizzle in Senate primary

By Kate Nash
Saturday, November 17, 2007

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They typically don't turn out in droves in primary elections, and they are hard to predict.

So expect New Mexico Republicans to be courted as never before in the June 3 primary election between U.S. Reps. Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson.

That's because the primary candidates will need all the turnout they can get in their race to replace Sen. Pete Domenici — a contest that's shaping up to be one of the country's biggest in 2008.

Whoever wins can expect to get strong national support.

"As one of the five open (Senate) seats in the country right now, it is a very high priority for us, and we believe New Mexico voters will decide to continue Senator Domenici's legacy next November," said Rebecca Fisher, the National Republican Senatorial Committee communications director.

The state's other Senate seat is held by a Democrat, Jeff Bingaman of Silver City.

A high Republican primary turnout would be a change from the recent past, Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff said.

"Many Republicans don't participate in the primary but turn out at the same or higher level than Democrats in the general election," Sanderoff said.

The low statewide primary turnout among Republicans — about 18 percent in 2004 and 2006 compared with about 26 percent for Democrats — is partly because there rarely are competitive primaries, Sanderoff said.

The last memorable Republican primary was in the 2002 gubernatorial race, in which John Sanchez defeated former Lt. Gov. Walter Bradley. Sanchez lost to now-Gov. Bill Richardson in the general election.

But this race will be extremely competitive, observers say, in part because the leading candidates are seen as representing different ends of the Republican spectrum: the conservative Pearce versus the moderate Wilson.

At this point, the primary election outcome is anybody's guess. One recent poll showed Wilson has better name recognition than Pearce, but that she also has higher unfavorable numbers.

Another poll showed Wilson and Pearce within a few points of each other when hypothetically pitted against Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, the first big-name candidate to enter the Democratic primary field.

For the Republican candidates, a major question is how the Republican vote will split in the district now held by U.S. Rep. Tom Udall, a Santa Fe Democrat who is expected to challenge Chavez for the Senate seat.

While Wilson is seen as a likely winner in the 1st Congressional District, which encompasses the Albuquerque metro area, Sanderoff said, it's also a good bet that Pearce will be strong among Republicans in his district, the 2nd Congressional District, which includes southern New Mexico and parts of eastern New Mexico.

However, Udall's area is a question mark for the GOP. The 3rd Congressional District, which stretches across northern New Mexico from the Republican strongholds of San Juan County to the eastern counties of Curry and Roosevelt, is up for grabs, because it has been so long since primary voters there have had to choose between candidates as different as Wilson and Pearce, Sanderoff said.

The area is not a small part of the primary equation.

"Don't underestimate the 3rd Congressional District in the Republican primary," Sanderoff said.

About 6,000 Republicans turned out in the last two primary elections in San Juan County, which includes Farmington, Bloomfield and Aztec.

In addition, Rio Rancho is in Udall's district, and Sandoval County — closer to Wilson's Albuquerque than Pearce's Hobbs — might prove to be a key battleground.

In 2004 and 2006, an average of 2,300 Republicans turned out in the primary elections in Sandoval County.

So what will the front-running candidates' strategies in those areas — and across the state — look like?

Already, Pearce has had a radio ad saying he's the "consistent conservative" in the race. Wilson has yet to release any ads, but in her 2006 race against Democrat Patricia Madrid she portrayed herself as a moderate who had remained independent of the White House.

The question of who is more conservative or more moderate is likely to be key, said University of New Mexico political science professor Lonna Atkeson.

"(Wilson)'s demonstrated she's a good candidate for the general, and maybe not so good for the primary," she said.

Wilson, first elected in 1998, narrowly bested Madrid in 2006 — as Democrats nationwide rolled to easy victories.

At the same time, if the most conservative Republicans turn out and elect Pearce in the primary, "(he) would have a hard time in the general," Atkeson said. "He seems very conservative for a statewide race."

The winner will likely face either Udall or Chavez. The election is likely to cost between $6 million and $8 million, analysts have said.

Already, Wilson has $755,609 on hand. Pearce has $582,312 in his House bank account available to spend on the race.

Wilson attended a fund-raiser in Washington, D.C., on Thursday night headlined by Vice President Dick Cheney. Later in the month, she'll have a fund-raiser in Albuquerque with Jack Danforth, a former Missouri senator and U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

For Republicans, an election that offers two big-name choices has people stirred up for the first time in a long time, said Scott Darnell, spokesman for the state GOP.

"That's causing extreme energy, because we are committed to making sure New Mexico doesn't have two senators who are going to go to Washington and vote with the Democratic leadership," he said.