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To believe or not to believe?

Actually, the important question isn't "How good are these November Lobos?"

It's better to wait to ask "How good will the March Lobos be?"

Some trends during the University of New Mexico's 5-0 start:

This undersized bunch has shown an ability to share the basketball.

The hot-shooting Lobos are hitting the 3 at an impressive clip.

First-year coach Steve Alford is developing a deep bench.

Tonight, those positive early signs will be tested as former Western Athletic Conference foe Hawaii (1-2) visits The Pit for the first time since the 1998-99 season.

If last season taught UNM men's basketball fans one critical lesson, it's that early success in nonconference games isn't a true indicator of a team's potential come March.

That's especially true when a team fattens its record in November against overmatched opponents. UNM's wins to date have come against Colorado on the road, and Eastern Washington, Presbyterian, St. Bonaventure and Loyola Marymount in The Pit.

Last year's 5-0 start came crashing to a halt once the Lobos started playing Aggies, Cougars, Rebels and Aztecs.

On the road, the 3s don't fall as easily. The Lobos are averaging 10.6 treys per game and are shooting 47.3 percent from beyond the arc.

UNM connected on 13 3-pointers in all three games of the Basketball Travelers Tournament this past weekend.

Those are astounding numbers likely to fade once the competition rises.

As it did last year.

The deep bench usually shortens, too, when the games get tighter and stakes get higher.

UNM's reserves scored 49 points in the Lobos' 86-58 win Sunday over LMU. The bench in five games has provided 46 percent of the scoring and 47 percent of the rebounding.

Will those contributions remain at that pace? Doubtful, coaches tend to shrink their bench to seven or eight reliable players once conference games get underway.

Likewise, the generous Lobos are dishing nearly 21 assists per game. That total is sure to diminish, unless point guard Jamaal Smith suddenly becomes Jason Kidd.

A win over Hawaii at home tonight probably won't persuade fans the Lobos are MWC contenders. But a road win at Hawaii on Dec. 27 in the rematch of the rare home-and-home series might be a better barometer of how these Lobos might fare once league play begins.

If the Lobos are still unbeaten come January, then fans won't need to ask how good the March Lobos will be.

They'll already know.