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5 predictions on what 2008 race will look like

Tribune staff
Thursday, October 4, 2007

In the whooshing vacuum left by Sen. Pete Domenici's sudden and shocking decision to leave the U.S. Senate when his term ends, here's an insider's guide to what could happen as Democrats and Republicans assess their options.

Scenario No. 1: Gov. Bill Richardson vs. U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson

Richardson has long insisted — and did again Wednesday — that he is much more interested in becoming president than becoming a U.S. senator. But his thoughts on the subject always were framed against the backdrop of a run against Domenici. Now, Richardson could leave Iowa and New Hampshire, where he's far behind, for the far more friendly environs of the South Valley and Las Cruces and Rio Rancho, where he would set up a battle royale against Wilson, long seen as Domenici's hand-groomed protégé.

Expect both national parties to jump in with both feet — and big checkbooks. Wilson has a loyal following in Albuquerque and has survived a variety of tough races. She's also a brass-knuckles campaigner. Richardson, whose record Republicans love to hammer, energizes Democrats. He's also no Patricia Madrid in a debate — meaning he can hold his own when the TV cameras are on.

Scenario No. 2: A Democratic primary survivor vs. Wilson or U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce If Richardson is determined to ride out his presidential bid and accept a Cabinet post if a Democrat wins the White House, look for an absolute free-for-all among state Democrats.

People expected an ugly primary for governor in 2010; the fighting now comes early. Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez likely would be in if Richardson steps aside, and it's likely everyone from Madrid to U.S. Rep. Tom Udall would give a serious look. Even Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, who'd all but promised she was interested in nothing but the governor's chair, seemed to demur on Wednesday. Chavez has a high visibility quotient on his side but struggled in his last statewide run in 1998 and was unable to elect a City Council to his liking as late as Tuesday. A Denish vs. Chavez fight would be delicious, but don't forget about Udall, who's attractive to liberals.

As for the Republicans, the ambitious Pearce could take on Wilson, a classic rural vs. urban New Mexico battle.

Scenario No. 3: The Battle for the 1st Congressional District If it's Wilson vs. Richardson, what becomes of Wilson's Albuquerque-area congressional seat? Expect Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White — well-liked by Republicans and even Democrats — to give this a serious look. The Democratic opponent? Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich is already on board, and just about anyone else might jump in, including former state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham and perhaps Madrid. Chavez would seem to be a natural, though he's often derided the 24/7 fund-raising pace a congressional seat would demand. An open seat might get him to change his mind.

Scenario No. 4: Richardson vs. Gary Johnson: Yes, that Gary Johnson. OK, perhaps it's far-fetched. But Republicans have little statewide bench strength and might ask the former two-term governor to give up skiing and traveling for a shot at Richardson. Political reporters would salivate at the prospect of a debate between these two.

Scenario No. 5: A Democratic longshot vs. a Republican longshot: An unknown Democrat winning the primary is probably the most improbable option, given that big-timers in the party have long thirsted for a chance at the Senate. It's not so unheard-of on the Republican side — the GOP elected Garrey Carruthers and Johnson governor in the 1980s and Õ90s and ran neophytes like John Sanchez as recently as five years ago. But something strange would have to happen to take Wilson, White or Pearce out of the picture.