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2008 congressional prospects thrill New Mexico Democrats

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— When New Mexico Republicans woke up two weeks ago, they faced the comfortable prospect of going into the 2008 elections with three veteran incumbents running for the U.S. Senate and two U.S. House seats.

Now they have none.

Sen. Pete Domenici's announcement the afternoon of Oct. 4 that he would not seek re-election has produced a chain reaction that has Democrats in Washington and in the New Mexico dreaming of turning a Congressional delegation that is now weighted 3-2 Republican into 5-0 Democratic.

Republican incumbent Reps. Heather Wilson of Albuquerque and Steve Pearce of Hobbs are now throwing their substantial campaign war chests - $754,000 for Wilson, $582,000 for Pearce - into the June 3 Senate primary instead of using the money against Democratic House candidates.

The decision by Domenici, an Albuquerque Republican, not to seek re-election also has brought a big-name Democrat to the Senate race in Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez. He immediately jumps to the top of the four-candidate field, and Lt. Gov. Diane Denish continues to weigh joining the race.

"It's a tremendous opportunity for New Mexico to send people to Washington to change the direction of this country," said state Democratic Party Chairman Brian Colón. "The writing is on the wall. It's going to happen."

The prospects of the Republican Senate primary are particularly appealing, Colón said.

"I've got two incumbent Republican congressmen who are going to get to highlight each other's failures over the next six months," he said. "I couldn't ask for a better situation."

For the moment, two Democrats - Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich and Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley - are leading the money chase for the 1st and 2nd congressional districts to replace Wilson and Pearce, respectively. Heinrich has $214,000 and McCamley has $186,000.

"New Mexico just became another nightmare for Republicans already struggling to plug all the holes in their sinking ship," said Doug Thornell, press secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "We feel both open seats provide Democrats with great pick-up opportunities."

Not so fast, Republicans say.

Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White is a top-tier GOP candidate to replace Wilson in the Albuquerque-area 1st District, said Ken Spain, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

"We are confident that not only will he run a competitive race, but he will win," Spain said.

As for the 2nd District, Spain said the GOP would welcome any effort by Democrats to spend money in that "Republican stronghold" because "they would be embarking on a fool's errand."

Republican candidates are expected to announce for Pearce's seat now that he has told supporters he plans to run for the Senate. More Democrats may emerge, too.

On Wednesday, former Lea County commissioner and Hobbs oilman Harry Teague announced his intention to run against McCamley and Al Kissling, who lost to Pearce in 2006, in the Democratic primary.

The Cook Political Reporter, a Washington political tip sheet, plans to move the New Mexico Senate race from "solid Republican" to "toss-up" this week now that Domenici is out of the running.

The 1st District race was already considered a toss-up with Wilson in the race, after her narrow victory over Democrat Patricia Madrid in 2006. The 2nd District will move from "solid Republican" to "likely Republican" in this week's report, said David Wasserman, who tracks House races for Cook.

State Republican Party spokesman Scott Darnell said 2008 will be tough. "We recognize this is going to be a challenge to the Republican Party," he said.

But while Pearce and Wilson fight it out for the Senate nomination, the party "will be setting the record straight about the Democrats who are running," Darnell said.

That has already started with a long critique of Chavez's record as mayor.

And if viewers of New Mexico television stations thought they were inundated with political ads last year, just wait.

The national party committees and interest groups are likely to vie with the campaigns themselves to buy up advertising time.

For now, Democrats have a big financial advantage.

As of Aug. 31, the Democratic Congressional Committee had $22 million in the bank compared to $1.6 million for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

On the Senate side, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had $20.6 million in cash compared to $7.1 million for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.