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Many analysts predict that the shift to the left that gave Democrats control of Congress in 2006 will continue this year, but there's a lot of debate about how strong the wave will be. If the recent overthrow of the Las Cruces City Council is an indication of the national mood, the wave might be stronger than some suspect.

New Mexico didn't experience the shift to the left that was seen across the nation in 2006. Anger against Washington Republicans was canceled out by frustration over Democratic scandals in Santa Fe.

The only exception was Las Cruces. Because it's nearly 280 miles from Santa Fe, the city is fairly disconnected from state government and its scandals. In 2006, Las Cruces voters replaced three Republicans — two state legislators and one county commissioner — with Democrats.

The new officials aren't just Democrats — they're progressives. Las Cruces is historically a conservative Democratic city, so their victories raised some eyebrows.

I wondered then whether this was the start of a larger movement. The recent Las Cruces municipal elections appear to indicate that something greater is happening.

In November, voters upset with the perceived developer-friendly growth policies and attitude of the City Council tossed out the mayor and a 12-year councilor, replacing them with candidates calling for slower, better-planned growth and more public involvement in the process. Voters gave a third, open seat to a like-minded candidate.

In a special election held last week to replace the councilor who became mayor in November, voters overwhelmingly picked the candidate running on the same platform of change. In three months, citizen activists upset with their city's growth policies, aided in part by a get-out-the-vote effort coordinated by an Albuquerque-based environmental group, took control of the seven-member council.

The question I've been wrestling with is whether the overthrow of the council is a sign of the same desire for change that's being talked about in the presidential race or a purely local response to the area's growth. I think it's both.

Voters in Las Cruces have become increasingly frustrated with local growth policies. Since 1990, the city's population has grown from 62,000 to more than 90,000, and infrastructure hasn't kept up.

But the political shift extends beyond the City Council to the County Commission and local legislative seats. We're seeing record turnout in early presidential contests across the nation, much of it from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, and there's evidence those voters are similarly riled in Las Cruces.

Many of the local activists who organized the takeover of the City Council are also championing other causes that are popular with progressives — universal health care, ending the Iraq war and defending human rights and the environment. They're fired up, and they've had a lot of success recently in getting progressive candidates elected.

In this traditionally conservative Democratic community, conservative Democrats and Republicans have lost significant ground to progressives in recent elections. I suspect this is reflective of the national mood and may be a sign of what's to come in the current election season.